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Mathematical sports betting

The technical processes of a game stand for experiments that generate aleatory events. Here are a few examples:. A probability model starts from an experiment and a mathematical structure attached to that experiment, namely the space field of events. The event is the main unit probability theory works on.

In gambling, there are many categories of events, all of which can be textually predefined. In the previous examples of gambling experiments we saw some of the events that experiments generate. They are a minute part of all possible events, which in fact is the set of all parts of the sample space.

Each category can be further divided into several other subcategories, depending on the game referred to. These events can be literally defined, but it must be done very carefully when framing a probability problem. From a mathematical point of view, the events are nothing more than subsets and the space of events is a Boolean algebra.

Among these events, we find elementary and compound events, exclusive and nonexclusive events, and independent and non-independent events. These are a few examples of gambling events, whose properties of compoundness, exclusiveness and independency are easily observable. These properties are very important in practical probability calculus. The complete mathematical model is given by the probability field attached to the experiment, which is the triple sample space—field of events—probability function.

For any game of chance, the probability model is of the simplest type—the sample space is finite, the space of events is the set of parts of the sample space, implicitly finite, too, and the probability function is given by the definition of probability on a finite space of events:.

Combinatorial calculus is an important part of gambling probability applications. In games of chance, most of the gambling probability calculus in which we use the classical definition of probability reverts to counting combinations. The gaming events can be identified with sets, which often are sets of combinations.

Thus, we can identify an event with a combination. For example, in a five draw poker game, the event at least one player holds a four of a kind formation can be identified with the set of all combinations of xxxxy type, where x and y are distinct values of cards.

These can be identified with elementary events that the event to be measured consists of. Games of chance are not merely pure applications of probability calculus and gaming situations are not just isolated events whose numerical probability is well established through mathematical methods; they are also games whose progress is influenced by human action. In gambling, the human element has a striking character. The player is not only interested in the mathematical probability of the various gaming events, but he or she has expectations from the games while a major interaction exists.

To obtain favorable results from this interaction, gamblers take into account all possible information, including statistics , to build gaming strategies. The oldest and most common betting system is the martingale, or doubling-up, system on even-money bets, in which bets are doubled progressively after each loss until a win occurs. This system probably dates back to the invention of the roulette wheel. Thus, it represents the average amount one expects to win per bet if bets with identical odds are repeated many times.

A game or situation in which the expected value for the player is zero no net gain nor loss is called a fair game. The attribute fair refers not to the technical process of the game, but to the chance balance house bank —player. Even though the randomness inherent in games of chance would seem to ensure their fairness at least with respect to the players around a table—shuffling a deck or spinning a wheel do not favor any player except if they are fraudulent , gamblers always search and wait for irregularities in this randomness that will allow them to win.

It has been mathematically proved that, in ideal conditions of randomness, and with negative expectation, no long-run regular winning is possible for players of games of chance. Most gamblers accept this premise, but still work on strategies to make them win either in the short term or over the long run.

Casino games provide a predictable long-term advantage to the casino, or "house" while offering the player the possibility of a large short-term payout. Some casino games have a skill element, where the player makes decisions; such games are called "random with a tactical element.

For more examples see Advantage gambling. The player's disadvantage is a result of the casino not paying winning wagers according to the game's "true odds", which are the payouts that would be expected considering the odds of a wager either winning or losing. However, the casino may only pay 4 times the amount wagered for a winning wager. The house edge HE or vigorish is defined as the casino profit expressed as a percentage of the player's original bet. In games such as Blackjack or Spanish 21 , the final bet may be several times the original bet, if the player doubles or splits.

Example: In American Roulette , there are two zeroes and 36 non-zero numbers 18 red and 18 black. Therefore, the house edge is 5. The house edge of casino games varies greatly with the game. The calculation of the Roulette house edge was a trivial exercise; for other games, this is not usually the case. Also, most virtual sportsbooks feature a betting limit which will prevent a bettor from excessive spending. This incredibly effective betting strategy is more popular than the fixed amount betting system among bettors.

This system assigns a fixed percentage from your bankroll and then increasing each bet by the same rate after each win. This is a financial strategy that divides the possible bets into three groups depending on the odds of any game. One unique feature of this strategy is that at the end of each day, the final bank size is recalculated depending on the results.

So if the bankroll at the end of the day has increased, then the amount on each bet rises even though the percentage value remains the same. This financial staking formula was developed by American gambler John R. This betting system is only applied to events with odds ranging from 1. Miller calculated that, ideally, the odds would be set at 2. However, the bookmakers bake a margin into the odds for themselves. So the formula needed to account for this margin as well to be efficient.

The method of tank attack is used on odds up to 1. The bettor then goes on to calculate the number of steps or bets with each tank. It also helps to calculate how much in earnings you expect to receive from each tank. By dividing funds into tanks, bettors are safeguarded from the losses of one tank by the other. It is an offence for persons under the age of twenty-one 21 to make use of the Website.

If we are unable to confirm that you are 21 years old then we may suspend your account until such time that we are able to confirm your age. If you are subsequently proven to have been under 21 years of age at the time you made any transactions with us, then:. Betting Help Sports Betting. Arnold Stone November 15, Mathematical Sports Betting Here we take a look at some of the best mathematical sports betting strategies employed by successful punters across the globe: 1.

Fixed profit betting strategy A fixed profit betting strategy is a relatively simple mathematical sports betting concept. Martingale System The Martingale system proposes that for every loss the bettor incurs, he must increase his stake by double. Maria Staking Plan This is a financial strategy that divides the possible bets into three groups depending on the odds of any game.

If the odds on the outcome of a game is lower than 3.

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Is that all you need to succeed in sports betting or do you need more? There is a lot of literature and research in the field of professional gambling and modelling of sporting fixtures. Also, several big hedge funds now recruit for sports researchers and traders. With all that being said, I think you were either googling the wrong things, or didn't know how to filter out the relevant results.

As the field is highly mathematical and statistical, don't be surprised if you see things which seem highly scientific or numeric. Furthermore, all the low-hanging fruit has already been picked, and making money with a mathematical approach will require a high level of expertise and competence with statistics and likely programming too.

A nice paper to introduce someone to the ideas behind a mathematical approach to modelling sports is:. Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market Dixon and Coles This models a football team's performance by a Poisson process and produces a strategy for placing bets and proved highly profitable in their tests.

Although, don't expect the bookmaker's odd. Sign up to join this community. The best answers are voted up and rise to the top. What type of mathematics do you use in sports betting? Ask Question. Asked 11 months ago. Active 2 days ago. Viewed times. Improve this question. GreenMatt 1 1 silver badge 14 14 bronze badges.

Do you mean in making book, or simply in making bets? This is probably not exactly what you're looking for but you can find some resources in the Wikipedia articles Mathematics of bookmaking and Arbitrage betting. There is also a post on arbitrage betting on this site. In fixed-odds betting, determining whether an arbitrage opportunity exists reduces to deciding whether a given polytope defined by half-spaces is empty or not, which can be done via linear programming.

If you are interested in prediction, or parimutuel betting, other mathematics would be of use. Active Oldest Votes. Mathematical sports betting is already a huge thing There is a lot of literature and research in the field of professional gambling and modelling of sporting fixtures. However, the bookmakers bake a margin into the odds for themselves. So the formula needed to account for this margin as well to be efficient.

The method of tank attack is used on odds up to 1. The bettor then goes on to calculate the number of steps or bets with each tank. It also helps to calculate how much in earnings you expect to receive from each tank. By dividing funds into tanks, bettors are safeguarded from the losses of one tank by the other. It is an offence for persons under the age of twenty-one 21 to make use of the Website.

If we are unable to confirm that you are 21 years old then we may suspend your account until such time that we are able to confirm your age. If you are subsequently proven to have been under 21 years of age at the time you made any transactions with us, then:. Betting Help Sports Betting. Arnold Stone November 15, Mathematical Sports Betting Here we take a look at some of the best mathematical sports betting strategies employed by successful punters across the globe: 1.

Fixed profit betting strategy A fixed profit betting strategy is a relatively simple mathematical sports betting concept. Martingale System The Martingale system proposes that for every loss the bettor incurs, he must increase his stake by double.

Maria Staking Plan This is a financial strategy that divides the possible bets into three groups depending on the odds of any game. If the odds on the outcome of a game is lower than 3. If the odds are between 3. Similarly, if the odds range between 7. In case the odds are above 11, the Maria Staking plan insists that you do not take that bet. The Method of Tank Attack The method of tank attack is used on odds up to 1. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content. You Might Also Like.

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For those who enjoy playing parlays, the odds of beating any casino are very low, so maybe they should stick to playing slots or poker instead. Putting your money on singles is a way to go, presuming that one knows what he is doing. Placing bets on single games that one studied methodically can dramatically increase his chances of winning , although he needs to play a lot of single games for turning any substantial profit.

That is right, we already pointed out that sports betting is reserved only for sports fanatics, so other folks are better off with enjoying a roulette or blackjack tournament. One should look for a great value in his bet and he will be able to spot a great value only if he is an expert for the sport in question.

Managing his banking and placing some proper amount of money when wagering is another thing that requires practice and experience. Those who set clear parameters and stick to their plan will save a lot of time and cash and placing the same amount of money on every single bet is a proper way to go. This way one will practice discipline that is crucial for succeeding in this endeavor.

Those who have a burning passion for any sport are in advantage when it comes to sports betting, as their keen eye will spot the value where others just cannot see it. Educating yourself about how casinos construct or shift odds to influence our wagering decisions is crucial for gaining an edge over them. Next time when you place a bet on a winning team, remember that math is not just a bunch of numbers but a useful tool that can help you make some real cash.

January 31, The Grueling Truth. Home Podcast. Facts you may not know. We look at all possibilities. All High School Football. Aestimatio de Pugilistica: Why boxing has too many weight classes. Caleb Plant vs. Top Second Baseman of All-Time. All College Baseball.

College Hoops Weekly Picks. Home Privacy Policy. There is no doubt most players lose a lot of money betting , either online or offline. The majority of players do not record the results of their bets. In other words, they do not systematically track what comes in and what goes out on their betting account each month.

This is one of the 10 reasons we lose in sports betting. Going back to the topic of mathematics in betting, coming out a winner in sports betting depends on a very simple equation. Consider the average of odds you bet on, let us say 2. Now think how often your betting tips win.

Suppose the answer is 45 percent. This means that for every bets, you win 45 bets corresponding to 45 units profit since you are betting on 2. At the same time, you lose 55 bets, which translate to a loss of 55 units. If the product Y is greater than 1, you will be a winner in sports betting in the long run. Otherwise, the smaller than 1 the quicker you lose your capital. Write down all the matches you bet at odds of 2. Then verify how many of those bets have worked well. If it is 50 percent or less, the news is not good.

However, if it is over 50 percent then, in general, you pick your bets correctly. We all wonder how come some people manage to win in sports betting. That is the same as asking how the Y in the equation above is larger than 1. The answer of course lies on X and Z. Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system.

You can read more about the relationship between the odds and probability in the article about how we select the right bets online. We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting. They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance.

As they say:. Indeed, it is a totally respectable view, no objection on that. By completely rejecting the notion of statistics in sports betting is like deploring those who follow it. Moreover, we should consider the fact that in every sport event, statistics are reported during the event.

At the same time, major sports news sites keep statistical data for many years to come.

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Betting systems are strategies that have been developed over time by bettors.

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A betting odd opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability. The house always wins? Understanding the vig; Choosing the best betting site; Applying Mathematics to Bonus Offers; Choosing the Right Bets. Many punters and. The short answer of how a bookie makes money is the “"vig.” So when you see in sports betting that a team is “”, that means you have to pay the bookie $