Carl from Chicago 5. But I did learn more than enough to make the book worthwhile. I like the description in detail of how the bookmaker balances their books and what they take into consideration, and the different ways that the line and books are set in the USA and overseas.
I also like the thorough description of how to use multiple accounts for odds and even a recommendation of how many to have 5. One item that could be added for the appendix is looking at the economics of all the new sports betting systems set up by the state. The most important is that this book is recent and he talks about Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Also, he explains basic stuff with great data to back it up.
I loves knowing the averages I. I recommend it as part of your education in sports gaming. There were times especially with the numbers and charts that I got flashbacks from my stats class in college and started to break a cold sweat. Read more 2 people found this helpful Helpful Report abuse John Hughes 5. I so wish I knew this stuff years ago before I lost every sports bet I've ever made.
I so wish I had something to bet on now. I've read a lot of books on sports but I've never read anything about betting before. I can't imagine there is anything better out there - at least not on a math level I could understand. The author is funny and smart - they didn't include his picture so I don't know if he's good looking too.
One day sports will be back and I will be ready for it! Read more 4 people found this helpful Helpful Report abuse Lindsay Deacon 5. Reviewed in the United States on July 13, Verified Purchase As a newbie to sports betting, I wasn't sure what to expect but I was immediately impressed with how much information this book has to offer. The book is really well-organized and well-written.
Topics are broken down into easy-to-understand concepts and strategies, and I felt like I've learned a lot, even when I am just flipping through -- and it never felt boring. This is a reference guide that could be used over and over so I'll be ear-marking pages, especially for when sports' seasons start back up again! Read more 3 people found this helpful Helpful Report abuse Fernando Acosta 1. Your browser does not support HTML5 video. This book goes deep on spreads, moneylines, even football offenses.
It touches on baseball and odds and betting times. This thing is the definitive source of sports betting. I never bet professionally, I play football parlays with my cousins and may have bet a couple of friends on the game but after reading this it will give you the courage to bet professionally when you feel the urge. It is difficult to find all of this online without a ton of work, not to mention finding sources you trust.
While I understood the basics of betting football and basketball, this book helped me understand the "why" behind the spreads, what they mean, and how to use them effectively for your particular goal across multiple sports. Read more 3 people found this helpful Helpful Report abuse Brian T 5. Reviewed in the United States on July 12, As a fairly knowledgeable sports fan but not an expert on sports gambling, I found this book to be very helpful in explaining all of the intricacies of placing sports bets.
It's one thing to know a simple betting line or future bet to win the Super Bowl for example , but another to determine what are the better bets to make either online or in person. Definitely feel like a better educated gambler the next time I'm actually able to bet on sports. Great read! Read more One person found this helpful Helpful Report abuse See all reviews What other items do customers buy after viewing this item?
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One of these items ships sooner than the other. Show details. Ships from and sold by Amazon. Customers who viewed this item also viewed. Page 1 of 1 Start over Page 1 of 1. Previous page. Josh Appelbaum. The Logic Of Sports Betting. Ed Miller. Pat Hagerty. Statistical Sports Models in Excel. Andrew Mack. The Complete Guide to Sports Betting: The six key betting principles that professional bettors use to ensure profit at the sports book. Kevin Dolan. Next page. More items to explore.
Then One Day Chris Andrews. Wayne L. Picking Winners: A Horseplayer's Guide. Andrew Beyer. Register a free business account. From the Inside Flap Understand odds, moneylines, and point spreads Wager on baseball, football, and basketball Gather and study data like the pros Can sports wagering be profitable? Bet online or at a sports book Learn techniques for turning a profit Develop systems to succesfully bet on all the major sports Manage your bankroll Avoid bad betting habits Use fundamental and numbers-based analysis.
Understand odds, moneylines, and point spreads Wager on baseball, football, and basketball Gather and study data like the pros Can sports wagering be profitable? The books were obtained from several sources, including large chain bookstores, small private bookstores, a discount book clearance centre, used bookstores, libraries and Web sites. The broadest collection of books was found on Web sites and in large bookstore chains.
One store had three shelves devoted to gambling books. However, this also varied. In another chain store, only three books were found that were specifically on gambling. Smaller stores and used bookstores had fewer titles available, but those tended to be of a somewhat higher quality.
Clearance houses had a mixture of titles, including some of the poorest materials. The libraries had a limited selection of materials, and while most were of relatively high quality, some were quite old. Many books were examined in the bookstores or libraries, but we selected only a small number that we felt represented the full range of material in terms of quality and game topics. Results The analysis was completed in a three-stage process.
First, we went through the books to examine the information. Specifically, we were looking for examples of accurate and inaccurate information in the books. Second, we gathered these notes together into broad categories, which described the general type of information and misinformation that we found. The list of material was gathered in a bottom-up manner from the source books, which was filtered through our understanding of the nature of probability, randomness and gambling economics.
Third, we used our notes to catalogue the type of information found in each book. The information categories are listed below. Information categories Accurate information see Table 1 1. Rules: How to play the games. The discussion of the rules of play range from one or two lines to complete chapters detailing each possible play and the consequences of each choice.
Most of the books have a good description of the rules of the game and how to play it. Money management: Several books have detailed descriptions on how to manage money while gambling, others discussed it only briefly. Typically, this material gives rough guides to determining bet size in relationship to the amount of money the player has brought to the game.
In some cases, the book describes mathematical rules to determine one's bets. Some of the items discussed budgeting the gaming session in relationship to how much one can afford to lose. Probability: Several books have good sections describing the nature of probability.
Some do this in the form of a chapter; other have little bits of information scattered throughout the book. The former is most often found in general books, such as the Idiot's Guide, and the latter often in books on poker. Discouraging myths: Some books have sections discouraging the belief in myths or erroneous beliefs about ways to beat the odds. Discouraging problematic systems: Some of the books have good sections warning gamblers about the dangers of systems based on incremental betting.
Several books discuss the dangers of the Martingale system in which the players double their bets after a loss. The problem with incremental betting is that it skews the outcome of the play so that most gambling sessions show a profit. This produces an overconfidence in the system so that the gambler quickly escalates the size of their bets.
Eventually the player experiences a long losing streak and loses a great deal of money see Turner, , for further comments on the Martingale system. Short term outcomes: Books on poker, especially, warn gamblers not to take short-term trends too seriously. This advice is given both for winning "Don't get too confident when you win" and losing sessions "Don't get upset when you lose". Misinformation errors see Table 2 1. Misrepresentation of the likely outcome of winning: Many books are called a Winner's Guide or say that the player can beat the odds.
Even relatively good materials sometimes claim that they will help the reader beat the odds. Frequent or infrequent numbers: Some books encourage the reader to look for frequently or infrequently occurring numbers.
This advice is the opposite of discouraging myths. Prediction: These materials encourage the belief in predicting the outcome of a game. In the case of skill games, predictions might be accurate information, but in the case of non-skilled games, this is pure misinformation. Winning strategies: Describes false winning strategies, including the use of money management as a means of winning in the long term.
This, of course, is nonsense, but the authors are often careful not to make the claim too explicit. Sometimes the description of the system is so complex that it would be difficult for the average person so see the flaw in the logic.
Hot streaks or cold streaks: Many books reinforce the idea that there are such things as hot streaks, or hot tables. One book discusses how roulette runs in streaks and how the player can improve his or her chance of winning by following these streaks.
In a sense, hot and cold streaks do seem to occur as part of the natural clumpiness of random events. However, the fact is that streaks are simply part of the unpredictable nature of random events and following them cannot help the player win. Encourage the belief in luck: Many books either implicitly or explicitly encourage a belief in luck. Problematic systems: Some books encourage problematic betting systems such as increasing one's bet after a loss.
We have not yet come across any book that encourages the Martingale system — a system of doubling bets after a loss — and some books explicitly discourage it see Turner, , for further comments on the Martingale system. However, we have read several books that encourage some version of the d'Alembert system increasing a bet by one unit after a loss, and decreasing it by one unit after a win and other incremental betting systems. Several books encourage increasing bets while winning.
These systems are not as dangerous as the Martingale system, but can still lead the player into large financial problems. Biases: Many books encourage the search for biases. The hallmark of this type of material is that the reader does not need to know why a bias occurred, only how to measure it and track it. Most of the materials that discuss biases do not even address the issue of distinguishing chance from bias.
Biased systems are somewhat more difficult to evaluate than other erroneous beliefs because real world biases do exist that make games somewhat predictable. A weighted dice is an example of a real world bias. In fact, unless care is taken to ensure that the dice are perfectly square and balanced, they will show a bias. Dice used in home board games, such as Snakes and Ladders, often have a bias towards the numbers five and six because the numbers are marked on the dice using holes.
The side with one hole is heavier than the other sides, and the side with six holes is the lightest side. Nonetheless, biases in many games are possible, so a system that encourages the search for a bias cannot automatically be dismissed as misinformation. However, few of the bias books bring up the issue of finding an apparent bias by pure chance a type 1 error. Evaluation of the overall quality of each book After determining the general nature of the information contained in the books and other material, we went through the notes for each book to determine which type of information or misinformation was found in each book.
In addition, we coded this material in terms of its overall impact and have determined a rough quantitative estimate of the overall quality of the book which we rated using a school-type grading system ranging from excellent "A" to very poor "F. The categories and overall grade score are given in Table 1.
Note that these reviews are not exhaustive. It is possible that specific items mentioned might have additional strengths or weaknesses not discussed here. Ortiz: On Casino Gambling A. They tell the reader how to play more than how to win. However, there is a common tendency of publishers to advertise gambling books as having winning strategies.
Even fairly accurate books call themselves "winning strategies. The best books in this category have sections on probability, and they debunk myths, discuss money management and explain why players will most likely lose in the long run. We have come across several books in this category, which appear to be excellent resources on gambling in general.
In addition to the rules it has a wealth of good information, including sections on money management, psychology and a glossary of gambling terms. Unlike most books, it does not encourage betting the maximum numbers of coins on slot machines, it encourages betting what one is comfortable with. The authors also provide a good introduction to probability and, in general, provide accurate information to the novice gambler.
They also have a good section on the concept of luck, which discourages the reader from taking the idea of luck too seriously. The only objection we have to this book is that the authors jokingly encourage the reader to use slot machines as a way of testing out psychic ability. It would have been better if they had provided a disclaimer that by pure chance, it is often likely that people will appear to have their "psychic ability" confirmed.
However, we consider this to be a minor point. Overall, this is an excellent introduction. On Casino Gambling by Darwin Ortiz is also one of the better general introductions we have come across. This book has a brief introduction to probability, discourages myths, and has an excellent discussion of betting systems, such as doubling up after a loss, and the financial disaster that can result from following such a system. The book focuses on games where the player can affect the outcome, such as blackjack.
It has an involved description of craps, encouraging people to place free odds bets. It does mention that even with free odds bets the player is still playing against a house edge, but it also implies that one can beat the edge by combining increased bets while winning and placing free odds bets. On the plus side, though, it has a reasonably extensive discussion of why incremental betting systems are dangerous; however, the warning seemed to be too soft.
In terms of misinformation, it encourages increasing bets after a few wins to take advantage of hot streaks. The coverage of how to minimize the house edge in blackjack and craps legitimizes their claim to provide "winning" strategies, but these strategies are not unique secrets and will not allow players to beat the house in the long run.
It also suggests that card counting in baccarat is possible even though the general consensus amongst card counting experts is that card counting in baccarat is of little value Arnold, ; Ortiz, Another annoying feature is that the book advertises other products by the same publisher. For example, it introduces the idea of card counting and then suggests that the reader who wants more information can purchase another, much more expensive book.
A lot of the books on gambling include advertisements for other materials. This book contains a lot of good information about how to play specific games, but is overall a mediocre book on gambling. It is somewhat hard to follow and poorly organized. Edward Allen is fairly similar to Cardoza's book in format but is considerably shorter. Like Cardoza's book, it has a lot of ads for other expensive books and courses.
Also like Cardoza, Allen encourages taking free odds bets in craps. The most notable difference from the other book is the extensive set of instructions for playing video poker at a minimum house edge. While the book encourages money management and not betting beyond ones means, when it comes to video poker it throws away those cautions and encourages betting the maximum number of coins.
However, to be fair to Allen, we should point out that the house edge is much lower in video poker if the player makes the maximum bet. This book has instances in which it reinforces the idea of luck. On the plus side, it does discourage betting systems; however, again on the negative side, some of its advice is nonsense. For example, near the end it tells the reader to "Leave a winner if possible.
A small win is better than any loss. You can't go wrong leaving a winner, remember that. Let's win. Other jurisdictions have similar free publications. For example, an article on poker identified different types of poker players and gave strategy suggestions for each type Steinberg, An article on blackjack Tamburin, listed the effect of various rules on the house edge. Meanwhile, an article on slots Mitchell, encouraged progressive slot players to play when the jackpot is big because the "mathematical odds" are that it will hit soon.
The same article went on to encourage smart players to play after the tourists had finished priming the machines e. Thus, this magazine provides a mixture of good information and myths. Overall most of the general materials on gambling appear to be reasonably accurate descriptions on how to gamble. However, as indicated above, some resources are better than others.
Three other general books on gambling that we would recommend are What Are the Odds? These, however, have not been included in the tables due to space limitations. Sachar is a curious blend of nonsense and truth.
On the one hand, the book tells the reader how to determine if you have a talent for predicting lottery numbers. On the other hand, it discusses expected return, debunks some myths about numbers that are "due" to come up, tells the reader how to keep records to accurately judge success, discourages excessive spending, warns the reader about short-term fluctuations in chance, and so on.
We give it a passing grade since it might actually do some good to people who find out they do not have predictive ability. Of course, those who figure out that they have a "luck" ability see pp. Hot Lotto Numbers by Jean Simpson applies numerology to picking lucky lottery numbers and includes many charts. This book contains a short page description of the system, and the rest of the book is taken up with numerous charts and tables. The system is essentially a way of generating erratic or random-looking numbers to bet on.
As a number generation process the system accomplishes its goal, but the numbers are more spaced out than true random numbers. The book promotes the myth that some numbers are lucky or hot and that it is possible to mathematically predict winning numbers. Reading it one almost gets the sense that the author was writing it as a joke.
Luck of the Draw by C. Along the way, it does, however, give a number of tips on playing from the various winners mentioned in the book. In general, many of the stories describe relatively positive outcomes, but the book also describes a number of people that spent their way through the money or were hit by a series of other tragic events after the lottery win.
While some of the information on lotteries is accurate, the book also makes erroneous claims. For example, at one point it says that the player is better buying two tickets for one lottery than two tickets for two different lottery draws, which is not true. In both cases, the player has two chances of winning and it does not matter at all if those two chances are for the same draw or for different draws. It also feeds into the myth that systems that use past numbers or systems that use a wheel approach for placing bets a systematic approach to covering as many numbers as possible may increase one's chance of winning.
While the book does not advocate these systems, it does little to discourage them. The book does correct some erroneous beliefs, but encourages others. This book is worth reading since it provides a lot of insight into the lives of lottery players; however, as an advice book it receives a score of C. This book has been recently revised and expanded.
The first part tells the reader how to search for biases in the numbers that come up. A diagram is given illustrating how differential drag might cause biases. However, the author states that the player does not need to know the how or why of biases, but only needs to measure them and profit from them. The second chapter tells people how to keep track of numbers that are due to come up. Logically, the benefit of keeping track of infrequent numbers and the benefit of keeping track of frequent numbers should cancel out — which, of course, they do.
But Prof. Jones will never be wrong technically; odds are that if a number has not come up recently either it will not come up, supporting the "bias" theory, or it will come up, supporting the "due to come up" theory. As a result, the book will never be wrong, but at no point will the player be able to win by following this system except by chance. Patrick has created a large number of books and videotapes on gambling and conducts seminars on how to gamble. Much of the system is based on the belief that if red is showing it will keep showing, and so on.
The book also passes off money management as the key to beating the house. In addition, the book's tone is rather patronizing; at times even insulting Beating the Wheel by Russell T. Unlike the other books that cover biases Jones, ; Beyer, , this book does discuss the physics behind why biases occur e. It also stresses the importance of long-term observations to detect biases.
Biased wheels almost certainly do exist, but making money from them may be much more difficult than the book implies. According to the book, if a wheel has a bias, a player should be able to detect it after observations several hours watching a specific wheel.
That's an expensive margin of error. Our own simulations have shown that to detect a weak bias would require as many as 4, observations. The book is interesting as a historical account of biased wheel systems and criminal scams to cheat the wheel, but it is likely to lead most readers down the garden path into the realm of the type 1 error. However, it turns out that most of these wins were the result of various criminal conspiracies.
For example, one syndicate in Europe rigged wheels by replacing the screw holding the frets that separate numbers on the wheel with a smaller one so that the frets would be loose. When the ball hit a loose fret, it would bounce less, causing the ball to slow down and thus creating a bias for that part of the wheel.
Today frets with screws are no longer in use. In addition, electronic sensors record every roll of the wheel so that the casino would most likely detect a bias real or type 1 error before the player would have a chance to profit from it. Thus, bias systems are really a thing of the past Ortiz, Winning Strategies: Slots with Video Poker Scoblete, , a video tape frequently advertised on television, is actually quite a good slots video.
James Coburn hosts the introduction to the video; Frank Scoblete narrates the rest of the video. It discourages myths, tells the reader how the machines work and encourages money management. It encourages betting max coin the maximum bet permitted , but also stresses the importance of figuring out what one can afford to bet. Our only real complaint about this video is that it is advertised as a guide to winning, but it really only tells the reader how to avoid losing too much.
We suspect that a lot of people who purchase this video will be upset upon realizing that it does not actually tell them how to win. As with many materials on gambling, it contains a plug for another product: a video on how to play video poker. Some parts of this video, such as the section on myths, would be good for clients in treatment for problem gambling, but caution is advised in that the video is intended to promote slot play, not to prevent it.
See Turner, , for a more extensive review of this video. Poker books often talk about the short-term vagaries of chance. For example, a book might warn the reader how sometimes they will see someone win a hand with a poor starting set of cards a 2 and a 4 unsuited , while someone else with a pair of aces might be beaten. Such events do happen, but the player is discouraged from changing their strategy when such an event occurs.
They encourage the good player to be patient because over the long term, skill will produce success. We have not yet seen a bad book on how to play poker. However, these books usually do not accurately describe the difficulty of becoming a professional card player but make it seem as if poker is a realistic way of making money.
A Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker by Ken Warren is a comprehensive description of how to play Texas hold'em poker, one of the most common versions of poker found in casinos. It contains a wealth of information about the chances of winning the pot given one's cards and the bets of other players. It does not have a section on probability, but scattered throughout are references to probability. For example, on pages 48 and 49, the author writes: "It is likely that you will go through long periods of not getting a playable hand….
Don't get discouraged. It's normal and you should not let it affect your decisions. The important thing to remember is that your goal is not to play hands of poker, but to make the best decisions. Practical suggestions are given for virtually any hand.
Generally, the reader is encouraged to play conservatively and wait for good cards, but to play aggressively when he or she has good cards. Turbo Texas Hold'em by Wilson Software is an elaborate computer program designed to teach how to play hold'em poker. In addition to basic game play, the program provides extensive statistics on playing style, including how loose or aggressive the user plays against the computer opponents.
The opponents in this game are not random, but have programmed profiles about how they should react to a large number of specific poker situations. The profiles are designed to match the types of players one might meet around the average poker table, with names that are amusing and relevant. The game comes with 40 pre-designed profiles. Player profiles vary from tight folds most hands to loose stays in most hands and from passive checks or calls, but rarely bets or raises to aggressive bets or raises.
The user can also create custom profiles for the opposing players. The program provides an incredible wealth of information on strategies and probabilities. A player that thinks he or she is as good as the best might get a wake-up call with this tool.
Because one of the authors BF is an avid poker player, we have included a few additional references on that game, which were not included in Table 2. Some poker books are written for serious players of a specific form of poker, such as Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players by Sklansky, Malmuth and Zee In contrast, Steiner's Thursday Night Poker is intended for casual recreational players.
Caro's Poker for Women describes how women can gain an edge over men in poker by taking advantage of male players' tendency to underestimate female opponents, or gentlemanly courtesy towards female opponents. The book is directed towards novice players. Poker for Dummies by Harroch and Kreiger is oriented toward the novice player who might be beginning to play in public card rooms.
This book covers the most common forms of poker dealt in a casino i. These books contain valuable information for novice players or for players seeking to improve their skill. Statistical reasoning, bluffing, money management and reading opponents are discussed. Presumably, poker skills can be improved through reading and practice. Poker for Dummies is an excellent book for counsellors seeking to learn more about the game and today's poker scene.
Clients in treatment for gambling problems, however, should be cautioned that most poker books underestimate the difficulty of becoming a professional player. Players who succeed financially are statistically rare, and those who earn more than a minimum wage are rarer still Hayano, Success at poker requires emotional control and discipline, in addition to knowledge about the game. Little information on how to obtain or maintain emotional control is found in these books.
Material on skill-oriented games: Blackjack Beat the Dealer by E. Thorpe is a great book, a classic; it is a must read for any historian on gambling. Not only fun to read, the book has a lot of carefully considered mathematically-based rules for playing blackjack. Thorpe first describes in detail the basic system for blackjack and the computer simulations used to compute the optimal system for play.
He then goes on to describe modification to the basic strategy depending on the cards that have been drawn previously card counting. However, it is still an interesting book. Blackjack: A Winner's Handbook by J. Patterson has a lot of good material in it, including a bibliography on blackjack; various card systems; money management; and drills to learn card counting.
It is also the only book we have seen that gives concrete advice on how to attain and maintain emotional control. Patterson also discusses how to play in the modern casino where card counting is no longer always possible. One of the clear messages from the book is that card counting is not an easy way to make money.
On the down side, this book discusses the search for table biases as a result of like-card clumping, and the advice is a lot like other books that discuss biases. The validity of his claim regarding like- card clumping is difficult to evaluate.
On the one hand, shuffling, as he says, is not an efficient randomization process, but clumpiness is also a common occurrence in the normal nature of random events Gould, Patterson might be underestimating how clumpy randomness is supposed to be. But the solution to the clumpiness problem, shuffle tracking, is logical and might work whether or not cards are showing a bias or merely showing random variation.
In shuffle tracking, the player first card counts to determine if a section of cards in the deck is favourable to the player more high cards than low cards or unfavourable to the player more low cards than high cards. Then, while the cards are being shuffled for the next session, he or she keeps track of the clumps of player-favourable cards counted in the previous session, and bets more during the player-favourable clumps.
This system should theoretically produce an advantage to the player. Some of his other suggestions are definitely based on misconceptions about random numbers. For example, his Takedown strategy is a system of incremental betting that promotes the illusion that a mathematical system for bet size could somehow provide the player with an edge.
Although the book includes some misinformation, overall, it appears to be worth reading, especially for its discussion on discipline and self-control. Material on other skill-oriented games The Winning Horseplayer by Andrew Beyer includes both extremes — some good advice and some poor advice.
In the s and s, Beyer popularized speed handicapping, a method for adjusting performance figures to determine the true speed of a horse. However, since most people now use speed handicapping due in part to Beyer's book on this technique , adjusted speed is no longer a sure way to make money. For example, if a horse was boxed in one horse right in front of him and another beside him during the early part of the race, but went on to come in third, its overall speed is an underestimate of its actual ability.
If other bettors were not aware of this fact, the payout odds for that horse might be high enough to overcome the house edge. Trip handicapping is likely to be an effective means of finding underrated horses to bet on. But the system requires a lot of observation and is thus really only practical for people that spend day after day at the races. On the plus side, the book includes a step-by-step guide on how to read the daily racing form.
On the negative side, the section on tracking biases may be pure nonsense. The discussion of biases was written in the same manner as Prof. Jones's lottery book and even used similar words about not needing to know how the bias occurred. According to the book, sometimes a track will have a bias in favour of the outer part of the track, while at other times, a bias in favour of the inside track. Biases are determined by looking for unusual events such as horses that run on the outside winning more often than usual.
Since both inner and outer track biases occur, it is likely that both biases are merely observations of normal random events. However, as with roulette, we can not rule out the possibility that an actual track bias might occur due to the firmness of the track or a recent rainfall. The manner in which Beyers describes the biases mysteriously emerging for a short period of time and then disappearing again suggests that these biases are type 1 errors — random chance events.
Interestingly, since speed handicapping does work and would provide important information, it is unlikely that the player would ever notice if biases were not contributing anything to the system. However, the problem with trip handicapping is that it normalizes the obsessive study of the track and the progress of the race. John Patrick's Sports Betting is similar to his book on roulette. It is patronizing and filled with his own theories about trends. Like the books promoting biases Beyer, ; Jones, , he argues that one does not need to know why a trend occurs.
For example, he says: "In sports betting, as in every other betting endeavor, trends dominate. I dunno. I haven't got a clue as to why they dominate, but they do" p. Wood has demonstrated that trends and streaks in sports games occur no more often than is expected taking into account the underlying ability by team and random chance.
Trends per se, have no predictive power. Ironically, the belief in streaks may sometimes open up betting opportunities for astute handicappers to bet against the streak Paulson, As in his roulette book, Patrick is careful to describe his theory of trends in such a way that his theory will always make a correct prediction.
Loser, p. His theory can never be proven wrong through experience because the two opposite outcomes are always predicted. Interestingly, Patrick explicitly rejects the idea of handicapping sports games and the value of team statistics p. On the plus side, the book does emphasize money management and not betting more than one can afford.
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Of course, not every sportsbook will follow this exact same strategy. Some sportsbooks might not alter their lines too much, while some may try to influence bets to lean toward one side rather than trying to strike a balance. It all depends upon the goals of the bookmakers and how they think they are likely to make more money. Some will also engage in a practice called shading, which is basically inflating the value of the team they expect to be more popular with bettors.
There are a lot of chalk players out there, bettors who will only wager on teams that are favored by the sportsbooks. These types of bettors make it easy for sportsbooks to shade their lines, because they know that these players will pay the extra juice for the promise of reduced winnings, rather than taking a chance on the underdog. It should be clear by now that the sportsbooks have it figured out in terms of how they can be most profitable.
Your profits may start small, but will grow into something bigger over time. We already told you about chalk players in the section above, and you might notice that the way we described them kind of made them sound like fodder for the sportsbooks. Now, do you think that they would have sounded that way if they were constantly just rolling in the dough? There is no such thing as a set winner, and you may notice that the decimal lines we gave you when we were looking at no-juice lines in the above sections were much closer than the decimal lines we gave before factoring out the vigorish.
Some sites that specialize in giving advice to those with an interest in sports betting have suggested tracking your plays for as much as a full year before deciding whether or not you think you have the edge that it takes to be a profitable sports bettor. To be a truly profitable sports bettor, you have to check a few things when tracking your picks. First of all, you want to see how your picks fare in comparison to the opening lines set by the sportsbooks, not just the closing lines.
Bear in mind that the lines shift over time, so the opening lines are more indicative of what the sportsbook was actually expecting from each team. When tracking your bets, there are a few more specific stats you will want to note. The first is your ROI, or return on investment. Divide your profits on a bet by the amount you put into it, and you will see about how much you are making on an average play.
You will want to look at your ROI for individual wins, but you also want to see the profit you have made over time compared to how much money you have put forth in general since you began your foray into sports betting. You also want to see how often you are beating the closing line. Do not just look at how often you have beat the closing line, but also figure out the average for how many times you have beaten it compared to how many times you have wagered.
You may not fully understand this as a beginner, but the frequency with which a handicapper is able to beat the closing line is a reflection on their skill level, as it is unlikely that they are beating the closing line often by sheer luck alone. Some will give you other useful stats such as your Z score, which predicts your possible rate of success in the future.
You definitely want a service that offers this stat. Another stat that should be offered by the service you choose to utilize is R-squared. It is a bit difficult to explain mathematically, but basically you are looking at consistency.
Consistency in your win rate also allows you some leeway in terms of bankroll management. If you want to make sure that you really have an edge when it comes to sports betting, then your pick tracker should offer this stat. Do some research and figure out which service you like most, focusing on services with stats such as R-squared and Z scores. We have already written a number of articles on which stats you must heed when betting on various sports, most of which were linked in the intro to this guide.
Look around at some of our articles on various sports, and figure out which stats you need to be researching in order to make the best plays you can. And if that sounds like too much work, then ask yourself the following question…. We linked our packages page at the beginning of this guide, but there are things that you need to know about us and really about all handicapping consultants if you are going to bother using our services to begin with.
If you can afford the help of consistent winners such as ourselves then we recommend you take advantage of what we have to offer, but you might still want to know a little bit about how we work. Now, while we and many of our competitors may occasionally mention win percentages, we already covered above that these percentages do not have to be too high to be profitable. You will be working with a low sample size, but it will still be helpful to have these numbers.
Of course, another major thing that you will need to look at is the sheer price of the service you are planning to use. If you have looked at our packages page and have tracked some picks using our free trial , then you already know whether or not we are the service for you. But, in fairness to you, we should suggest that you do not pick a package that costs more than the amount you have in your bankroll. Remember that you will not always get your payouts immediately, so even winning with such numbers can feel a lot like losing in the short term.
Remember that truly successful sports bettors often make profits that are relatively small, but still worth the effort they have put forth. Someone promising to profit from just about every play is trying to sell you lies because they think that you are either irrational, inexperienced, or both. And while we maintain that this is a much less exciting way to bet, there are some benefits to it.
If you want to trust the service you are using, you might want to refrain from watching most games for a while. Your emotions during these games may cloud your judgment. Go by the numbers, not by how you felt when watching the games. This can be true whether your plays are winning or losing. If you win numerous times in a row, you might think that you can push your streak, whereas losing too many times in a row may cause you to become reckless out of desperation.
Stay the course. The last thing we want to talk about in terms of profitability is the sports on which you choose to bet. It is highly unlikely that a bettor would ever manage to beat the closing line on every single game like this, but this will still provide you with an idea of how profitable each sport can be. As such, these are the sports for which we read the following numbers.
In each sport, college bets seemed to offer greater profitability. Bets on college basketball games were also more frequent, with a sample size of compared to the NBA sample size of For college football and the NFL, the sample sizes were and , respectively. Again, the sample size was much larger for college games. The sample size for NHL bets was , which is again higher than that of pro or college football. However, bear in mind that these numbers were not figured with the assumption that the hypothetical bettor would win every play, merely that they would always bet the home team.
So you can potentially expect greater returns, but that does not mean that one sport is not still technically more profitable than another. This simply gives you an idea of which sports are most popular for bettors, and which ones offer the greatest potential ROI.
If your bankroll allows you to bet quite a bit over the course of a month, then you might be able to clean up pretty well by following all of the plays we give you. There are a lot of issues that must be taken into account when trying to decide upon the best sportsbook for you.
In fact, there are so many issues to take into account that we recommend you familiarize yourself with more than one book. Most online sportsbooks also offer various bonuses for signing up with them. Such bonuses may include anything from a free trial to even a few free plays, allowing you the potential to make a bit of money without having to risk anything.
This can be incredibly useful if played well, and will allow you to start making returns before you have made any type of investment. You want to do your research when looking at sportsbooks to ensure that you are getting the best bonuses possible. However, one of the most important bonuses that you will want to look for is reductions on the juice.
This may not be the most common feature offered by most sportsbooks, but you can find it offered by some if you look hard enough. Finally, remember when you are researching sportsbooks that you should be doing just that: researching. Do not just look at a few sportsbooks and decide which ones look the best, but actually look around online to see what people are saying about the books in question.
If people are saying that the sportsbooks are great about allowing you to deposit funds but take forever to allow you to withdraw your winnings, then you might want to go ahead and keep looking for better options. You can use them if you want, but you are doing so at your own risk. Also bear in mind that not all user testimonies are real.
You may not always be able to tell, but hopefully your instincts will serve you well. And you can be forgiven for this, because the lines offered by various books are often pretty comparable. The difference seems negligible. But, those seemingly negligible differences can still pay off over time. This is why you benefit from comparing lines and placing your bet at the sportsbook that offers less juice. Your bank account will be all the better for it.
If that describes you, then you want to stick to pretty low percentages of your bankroll on each play. However, if you can crunch certain numbers, then keep reading for a much more commonly accepted strategy in the world of sports betting. The Kelly formula, more commonly known as the Kelly criterion and also known by a few other similar names, is one of the most widely accepted rules in the world of sports betting.
At least, as far as bankroll management is concerned. If you use the Kelly formula often, you will come to understand why the above section on flat betting advised you to keep your bets relatively low in terms of your overall bankroll, even if you were fairly certain that you were going to win. Well, if you plug those numbers into the Kelly calculator linked here , it will actually tell you not to bet at all. This should give you an idea regarding just how precise the Kelly formula can be.
You may wonder why these numbers are differing so greatly, and the simple answer is that the Kelly formula operates through a relatively complicated equation that figures out your potential payout in terms of your implied win rate. And the whole thing might be going over your head, which is extremely forgivable considering how much it can complicate your sports betting.
Well, you can understand all this a bit better if you take a look at expected value. To get expected value for an underdog bet, you multiply the implied win rate by the number you get if you divide the line by , and then you subtract the inverse of the win rate.
The numbers we gave you for the Rangers would make this equation. You can see the difference by running the favored numbers as well. The equation for expected value is the same, only you switch the with the number at which the line is set. However, the change we made to the implied win rate resulted in. Expected value is what you might gain from a bet on average if you were to repeat it every time you placed a bet.
Expected value is often considered alongside another statistic referred to as expected growth, which is even harder to explain. What, then, should you be learning from all of this? Additionally, you should note that even our fudged numbers returned 1. It just might not happen all of the time. If you only take away one thing from the above few sections, let it be that bankroll management can be a tricky aspect of sports betting, and taking it for granted can result in extreme losses to your overall funds.
And if you can maintain a high success rate by either using our services or becoming a strategic and qualified sports bettor, then you can make more plays per day with a higher bankroll and still make steady profits. With these things in mind, go out there and have fun. So keep this guide in mind if you need to gloss back over some of the finer points, and feel free to get started. A whole world of sports betting excitement awaits you!
Toggle navigation. This is probably not the most successful banking strategy. Our experts are online now. Beginner's betting guide was formed in and has been a great source of online betting information ever since. Whether you fancy a flutter on your favourite football team, or perhaps a punt on the outsider at Aintree? Well, we are here to help! Starting with the basics of betting, and with easy to use guides. We will take you through all the ins and outs of the online betting scene.
The internet can seem a daunting place at first with so many different bookmakers and offers available. Picking the safe reputable ones is essential, and we can give you some honest advice on where to go. Our Betting Guides contains some of the most up to date betting information and can assist you with making informed decisions. Knowing the 7 reasons why having multiple betting accounts will increase your returns and the Top 20 Sports Betting Tips For Beginners can give you a sporting chance.
Being a beginner in anything can be worrying, especially when money is involved, but don't worry as we only give information on top rated bookmakers. When a major sporting event takes place, be sure we will have the best offers available for it. All of our betting guides have been put together to provide the latest and most up to date information.
If you want any other guides covered please get in touch. We have a page dedicated to the latest new customer betting bonuses. To keep you up with trends within the industry we have a section that covers latest betting news.
Deciding where to bet can be a challenge, we only recommend the best UK bookmakers on this site and it is all from personal experience. We dive deep when we look at choosing a bookmaker to use and some of the key factors are It may seem like a daunting process to open a new account and input your details, however the bookies have made it a very easy and simple process.
We have put together a great guide on opening a betting account which will help with the basics. Once you have opened your betting account you will need to set up the preferences to help you get the most out of your account. Also having a handy odds conversion table bookmarked is always a good idea. We dont advocate betting tipsters, do your own research is the best policy. Anone can set themselves up as a betting tipster and take money. But think about it, if you could actually tip winners, would you pass that info on?
Multiple Betting accounts can really help you increase your returns and increase your chances of making a profit. Only having one online betting account can. The Gambling Commission have announced tighter controls on online gambling. The new controls will have to be in place by 31st October and to. Beginner's Betting Guide.
How to open a Betting Account. Betting guide's. Betting bonus and betting offers.
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