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Sure, the moneyline is a set of particular odds given by a bookmaker, and we all know that. However, what most casual bettors do not understand is how these particular odds relate directly to a percentage. All odds within any market and any sport relate directly to a percentage chance that the bookmaker believes a particular market or team has of winning this is known as the ' Win Probability'.
You can find many win probability calculators online that will do all of the hard work for you. By using the formula above or using an online calculator you can now determine the percentage chance the bookmaker believes both of these teams have of winning. So, for the Los Angeles Angels , that would be These percentages are known as the bookmakers' ' Implied Odds'.
So for example, if we calculate that the Angels have a 62 percent chance of winning, we have what is known as an ' edge '. So while the bookmakers' line is , we believe it should be 62 percent. Negative EV wagers, known as -EV are losing propositions and should be avoided. What Is EV?
Why Expected Value Is Important Beginners to sports betting often think they should only bet on winners. This is not a profitable way to bet. Not many people can actually predict the winners accurately enough that it becomes profitable. This is how sportsbooks make most of their money. If this was the case, anyone that watched enough sports could easily make a fortune.
Sports are unpredictable… …but Expected Value is not. EV is purely based on numbers. It shows how much value is in the bet. Further, EV helps to sift through things you already know. Then, subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you would lose. Follow these steps to fill in the above formula to calculate the EV for your bets: Translate the odds into Decimal Odds using our Odds Converter. Calculate the Amount to Win from a winning bet and its Probability of Winning.
Calculate the Amount to Lose from a losing bet and its Probability of Losing. Enter this into the formula. Likewise, the American Odds for the Golden Knights to win can be translated to:. This is simply your stake. Finding Value Bets. Note that there are a few things to keep in mind when searching for value bets.
EV only illustrates if there is good value in the bet. In fact, some wagers on heavy favorites can be -EV. The -EV simply means that there is bad value, not that the heavy favorite will lose. This does not mean because they are low, they are always -EV.
Conclusion Expected Value is a tool that will help you decide whether to make a bet or not based on making that bet over the long run. It does not tell you whether the bet will win. Now over to you. Do you often use EV when making your bets? Comment below or let us know on Twitter.
Sports betting works the same way. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so he wagers on Detroit. Though he too believes the Lions will win, he thinks this is far less likely than the book does. This looks like:. Bettors should remember to add the line plus the first. This would look like:. Converting negative odds is just as easy. Using , for example, would like the following. Again, the formula calls to add the two pieces of the denominator or second half of the equation before dividing the numerator:.
This is because of the vig , which is applied to virtually every wager. That seemingly small fee adds up over the long run, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even, much less profit. Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin toss bets at for both heads and tails. Since Super Bowl coin toss bettors roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome.
More traditional sports wagers work pretty much the same way. If, for example, a book gets a roughly even number of bettors that wager the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, it is guaranteed to make money. Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss. Unfortunately, bettors have no sure-fire way of knowing precisely which bets have positive expected value. As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on decades of experience and substantial financial and human capital resources.
A sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that an average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. If a bettor wants to make money long term, they should make looking dissecting expected value a part of their process. Here are a few more tips that will help you do just that:. Lakers all received outsized attention from the media and sports fans in general.
This contrarianism extends to not just teams, but sports and leagues themselves. When everyone at the sportsbook focuses on the Red Zone channel, the best value might very well be and usually is on the TV no one else is watching. This sensation has carried over to the growing number of local sports betting markets.
Most sportsbooks are owned by large, multi-national conglomerates that keep lines fairly consistent between markets, but value bettors should consider their local sportsbooks home teams when considering a bet, especially if they see value on their opponents. Along with nationally popular franchises, bettors tend to love betting on the best teams. Underdogs cover point spreads just about as often as favorites. That being said, people pay far more attention to teams at the top of their league than those at the bottom, and betting dollars inherently flow toward the top because of this.
But that means that underdogs can sneak away extra value if bettors take the time to weigh their worth as the masses fawn over the heavy favorites. Though bettors should consider the values of both favorites and underdogs, more often than not, neither is worth a bet. Once again, sportsbooks have a large advantage. On an NFL Sunday, many bettors will try their luck at every game of the day.
Just like savvy shoppers may buy produce at one store and deli meats at another, sharp bettors shop around for the best lines. This is part of why sharps and the general sports betting public clamor for deep, competitive marketplaces that permit a dozen or more sportsbook licenses. Though opening lines are still on better footing than anything an average bettor could assign, initial values have not yet been molded by the sharps and later the masses to the form of their greatest efficiency or best value.
After the sharps and general public get through it, the value is usually lower than when it began. Only if you want a chance to break even long term. The sportsbook has every conceivable advantage, which is compounded further by the vig. Moneylines cannot be averaged to determine a no juice market price.
The correct way to go about this is to convert to a breakeven percentage and then remove juice. Breakeven percentage is calculated using risk divided by return, with return being both the stake and the win amount. Notice that if you add these together the probabilities total This is because juice is still included.
The math is Phillies The juice has been removed and this represents the bookmakers no juice probabilities. That number shows us the bet is returning 2. The two lessons here are that moneylines cannot be averaged, and that saving a few moneyline cents on the favorite does not have nearly as much value as getting a few extra moneyline cents on the underdog.
Keep this in mind when spotting off market moneylines at one of the online betting sites you use to price shop. Consider this: if we or someone else published a book with every trick to beating sports betting, how long would it be before sportsbooks fixed it so that these opportunities no longer existed? There are only hints sprinkled here and there where theories are discussed.
Also, in my article about Hockey Betting, we end with a prop bet scenario that gives a small introduction into Poisson Distributions. For most sports betting is a form of entertainment, and by simply using the advice we showed you earlier about line shopping, backing out juice to compare bets, you now have enough information to reduce the house advantage and stand a better chance of getting lucky. When you use this info along with bonuses, such as the Bookmaker.